Stay or Go?

This time last year I wrote a similar post on the subject of who may be leaving at the end of the season. 12 months down the line what was a definitive has become little more than guesswork. It’s still worth doing however as most rugby contracts seem to be at least 2 years and only the very fortunate or the very marketable get anything longer than that.

It’s also worth doing now because a lot of the signing seems to take place between December and February.

Let's take this in chronological order. The oldest contract at Edinburgh dates back to 2018 and belongs to Grant Gilchrist. Gilco last put pen to paper on 21/12/2018 so by the end of this first season of the URC that will be 4 years. It’s unlikely that his contract goes beyond that. 

Stay or go? There have been rumours in the past of interest from France and at 31 this will probably be his last chance to try something else, if that boat hasn’t already sailed. I think he will be offered at least a year's extension and with a young family will see out his playing days at Edinburgh.

Next up is the 2019 cadre and there’s a healthy list who last signed the year before COVID struck. 

Mesulame Kunavula 

Pierre Schoeman 

Chris Dean 

James Johnstone 

George Taylor 

Luke Crosbie 

Mark Bennett 

Mesu arrived on 24/6/19 so we know by season's end that exactly 2 years will have elapsed. He has been a bit part player throughout that time amassing only 15 appearances, mostly off the bench. It’s not the easiest place to get game time in an Edinburgh shirt but despite being named most improved player at the end of 20-21 and impressing when given a chance it may be that at 27 he may well look to find a spot where he can play more.

Stay or Go? The signing of Sam Skinner along with the embarrassment of riches Edinburgh have in the back row will I think mean Mesu’s contract won't be renewed, if indeed it is a 2 year deal. 

When Pierre Schoeman renewed his contract in early December of 2019. Richard Cockerill said that the looseheads contract would take him beyond the date that would qualify him to play for Scotland. At that time, before the rule change, that would have meant a further 4 years with Edinburgh. So 2023 is the likely expiry of that deal.

Stay or Go? Definitely staying unless someone comes in with a silly offer to buy him out of his contract and even then I’d be surprised if he was interested. That said, it's a short career.

Edinburgh re-signed 4 centres in December of 2019. Chris Dean on 4/12, James Johnstone on 5/12, George Taylor on 17/12 and  Mark Bennett on 26/12. JJ will be 32 by the end of the current season and has been used sparingly this season. Bennett is the incumbent and James Lang as well as the emerging Matt Currie have also been used at outside centre. Bennett is as already mentioned the likely first choice in this position and is only 27.

The outlook at inside centre for the two who may be out of contract is even murkier. George Taylor has been injured for much of this season so far if not all of it and Chris Dean is well down the pecking order with only very brief appearances off the bench on the road v Benetton and Zebre. With Mike Blair still seemingly trying to find the right combination at centre those cameos don't bode well for Dean. 

I’d be surprised if any of this last group had 4 year contracts so will be up for renewal in 2022.

Stay or Go? Bennett will stay as the preferred option at outside centre. Time may be up for Johnstone. I think Dean may also not get renewed as James Lang and Cameron Hutchison seem to have inside centre sewn up between them. Taylor is only 25 and although his progress hasn’t been as linear as i’d hoped for I think he’ll get a chance to see if he can make it under Mike Blair’s game plan. There's also the not insignificant figure of Henry Immelman to take into account as surely Boffelli is our first choice 15 now.

That leaves Luke Crosbie as the remaining 2019 signee. I think this is a tough one. Edinburgh will undoubtedly want to keep him but the player himself may have other ideas. Hamish Watson is one of the last players we have an actual contract expiry date for and it’s not till May 2024. As good as Crosbie is he will always have that pinball in his way until then. That in itself is fine as he gets plenty of game time but he will also want to position himself to be Watsons replacement at international level when the time comes and won’t be unaware of Rory Darge nipping at his heels and getting regular starts at Glasgow.

Stay or Go? Again this is tough. If a decent outside offer was to come his way I think he’ll go but if not he WILL be offered a new contract. 

The 2020 signatories fall right into the 2 year average deal window. 

Stuart McInally 

Dave Cherry

Lee-Roy Atalifo

Magnus Bradbury

Charlie Savala

Damien Hoyland

We already know that Ben Toolis has decided to move on and have a final fling in the land of the rising sun and big rugby scores. To lessen that blow we also know that Sam Skinner is incoming and thanks to Exeter who aren’t signed up to the official secrets act we know that his deal is for 3 years.

When he renewed his contract in January 2020 Stuart McInally’s deal was described as being ‘long term’. That would suggest it's more than the standard 2 but as he’ll be 32 by the time season 2022-2023 starts I’d guess that means he’ll be tied up till the end of that season.

Dave Cherry is only 5 months younger but it may be that he doesn’t have the extra year on his deal that Rambo has. He has been effectively second choice this year but Adam McBurney is 5 years his junior and only signed at the start of this season so potentially won't be out of contract until the end of next season. 

Stay or Go? Rambo will stay as his deal is likely 3 years. I think it may be a toss up if Cherry stays. I’m not sure he will have other suitors at his career stage so unless he’s offered an extension retirement may beckon.  

Tighthead prop is another position that is hard to call. Lee Roy Atalifo will probably be out of contract at the end of this season going by the applied rule of thumb. He will be 34 by then which isn’t old in prop years and he is getting plenty of game time behind acknowledged starter Boan Venter. 

Stay or Go?  With WP Nel increasingly being kept in a box in case of emergencies and likely to move further towards a full time coaching role I think it highly likely that Lee-Roy will be offered an extension to his contract.

Magnus Bradbury signed his last deal in January 2020. He has come into a thick vein of form over the last few months which we all hope will continue. Sometimes that indicates a player is looking for a move and some good bits for their highlights reel (see Sam Hidalgo-Clyne) but it may just be a sign of maturity. 

Stay or Go? With continued rumours that Bill Mata is wanted elsewhere despite being in contract until potentially 2023 I think Magnus will be a valuable asset and will stay on a further 2 year deal. 

 The club has put a lot of time and effort into adapting Charlie Savala from league to union as well as giving him the platform to show his progress in that regard so it’d be a surprise if they were to abandon that project at this stage especially as it seems to have picked up some pace under Blair.

Stay or Go? I’d be surprised if he had been given more than a 2 year deal given his playing background so I expect he will be out of contract as seasons end. I think he has effectively leapfrogged Nathan Chamberlain as 3rd choice stand off. An extension will be offered.

Damien Hoyland’s last deal in 2020 was in some regards a surprise. He wasn’t getting much game time whether through injury or selection but Mike Blair seems to hold him in higher regard than his predecessor and he has performed strongly whenever he has had the chance this season. 

Stay or Go? You probably don't want to be negotiating a new deal whilst injured as Damien is currently but he can at least point to the resurgence in form he has shown this season and will I think be offered a new deal. He will probably have to be content with sharing the berth with Darcy Graham and Ramiro Moyano but the former will spend a considerable amount of time away on Scotland duty and the latter, is 31 and it’s possible that he may not have been given even that two year average deal I keep banging on about. Hoyland will be offered a new deal.

Of the 2021 signees everyone has either already sorted out their contracts for the foreseeable future (Hodgson, Sykes), has announced their departure (Toolis) or is probably secure for a further season beyond the end of this.

I’ll pick out a couple that might not be safe despite having only signed in 2021.

Nathan Chamberlain was promoted from the academy to the senior squad prior to the start of this season having already played a number of games for the 1st team. Since then he has fallen off the radar entirely and hasn’t been selected in any of the matchday squads. He slipped down the pecking order with Kinghorn’s conversion to 10 and Savala also appears to have overtaken him. With James Lang also capable of slotting in there you have to wonder if his time with Edinburgh is coming to an end. That supposition is of course based on him only having been given a 1 year deal as a fresh out of the academy recruit.

Freddie Owsley may also fall into the same category. We’ve not seen hide nor hair of him and as a Cockerill signing straight out of Bristol’s academy famed more for his speed than rugby ability he may not fit Mike Blair’s vision. Again he may have been given a 2 year deal but although older than Chamberlain his playing profile is similar so his contract might also be.

Ladies and gentlemen. This is all guesswork based on some half baked theory of the ‘two year average’ and some inadvertently revealed titbits so take it in that light. It would be nice to be able to put a bit of flesh on these bones based on something more concrete but as you all know contract lengths are now solely in the purview of the player, the club, his agent, his family, his friends, any other club that asks, his neighbour, a guy he mention it to down the pub, professional journalists(maybe) but not to you the fans that, you know, actually pay to watch these guys. 

You, like me, just have to guess and make wild stabs in the dark and hope that you hit the target occasionally.