Ultimately given the tight nature of the outcome the events of the first 15 minutes were probably the biggest factor in the way it all played out.
Almost immediately from the kick off James Lang broke from deep within Edinburgh’s own half supported left and right by Vellacott and Kinghorn respectively. Vellacott was probably a little closer whilst Kinghorn was wider but had no defenders in front of him. Lang probably chose correctly to pass to Blair but the execution of the pass was lacking and it hit the ground. Had it gone to hand it would have been a straight run in and a 7 point lead within 30 seconds.
That break also led to Lang going off injured a couple of minutes later to be replaced by Chris Dean. Dean played well thereafter but there was no doubt that the disruption to the 10/12 axis and understanding that Kinghorn and Lang are developing contributed to the way things panned out.
Only a minute or so later Stuart Mcinally went off for an HIA that also led to Ulster being reduced to 14 men for the next 10 minutes.
Another minute passed and a clever overhead pass from Kinghorn released Dean into space and he passed to Crosbie. He had Hoyland in free space outside him but chose to hold onto the ball when the pass would have been the correct decision and would have led to at least a try in the corner.
That opening 7 minutes could have seen Edinburgh at least 12 points ahead and the game would have looked a lot different. Instead the opening score went Ulster’s way following a very harsh decision from Ben Whitehouse to penalise Pierre Schoeman for being pulled out of a maul by an Ulster player and then Ulster’s maul falling over him as they were going backwards. Whitehouse had already had to make 7 decisions and by my reckoning this was the first he had got wrong.
More on the referees decision making later but it’s worth mentioning this one just now because it led to the first try of the game and as previously mentioned this opening period was crucial.
The laws of the game say that in relation to a maul that
Players who leave a maul must immediately retire behind the offside line. Sanction: Penalty.
However the same section also says players must not
Attempt to drag a player out of a maul. Sanction: Penalty
So, I’d say that there would have been sufficient dubiety in this instance especially with the Ulster maul already going backwards to play on. Instead Ulster get a penalty, Edinburgh get a warning and the try follows shortly after.
Edinburgh did have another great chance in the opening half when Chris Dean broke down the right, handed off one defender and stepped inside the next. When he took off on his run Hoyland was outside him and his first instinct when looking for the offload was to look outside again where he might have expected Hoyland still to be. The winger had unfortunately come infield and Dean had to rethink and the pass went astray.
Edinburgh finally got on the scoreboard as the first half drew to a close and with the score poised at 3-13 I was not not too disheartened. We had made mistakes,were frustrated with some of the officiating and had spurned at least two very good chances but we had had the larger share of the possession and territory and it felt like there was just a very small piece of the jigsaw missing.
Only two things worth mentioning in the second half.
The injury to Dave Cherry was concerning and the fact he continued in the match, still carried, hit his lineout jumpers and tackled was admirable. I think it speaks highly of him that despite being in considerable pain he put the needs of the team before his own discomfort.
The second thing was the Mark Bennett try which was the fillip we all needed at that stage.
As Edinburgh battered away at Ulster's line and the clock tipped into time added on we were hoping Cherry or Schoeman(on for the full 80) would have got over the line for what would have been a Disney style finish unfortunately it wasn't to be and the end was instead as disappointing as the last season of Game of Thrones.
In summary, decision making was Edinburgh’s downfall. Two tries left out there coincidentally by players who have seen little or no game action for a long time and another ( The Lang break) by poor execution.
Discipline was also an issue especially in the opening 40 when Edinburgh conceded 11 penalties. In the second half they conceded only 2 and won that half 7-3 so it’s pretty clear what could have been.
Two very early injuries also contributed. The poor weather conditions didn’t help.
What was less of a factor than many (including myself) would think is the decision making of Ben Whitehouse. I looked at every penalty he gave against Edinburgh and reckon he was right in all but one of those. The fact that one led directly to Ulster's try is just potluck. Harder to make a judgement on the potential offsides he didn't give but you could see the frustration on the players faces and in the noise emanating from the Lothian stand.
Some will tell you that had Edinburgh got the winning score we would have snatched it or that It wouldn't have been deserved. But we carried more, beat more defenders, made more breaks and more gain line carries, won more rucks, lineouts, and scrums than Ulster did and their reaction at the final whistle says they were the team that got lucky.
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